Explainers

You just did a thing.
Here’s what it’s called.

Short, plain explanations of the ways thinking goes wrong — in an argument, on your own, and in a room full of reasonable people. What each one is, what it looks like, and why it doesn’t work. One page each, no rant attached. Made to be sent to somebody instead of typed out for the hundredth time.

Rhetorical move

Ad Hominem

also called the personal attack, playing the man

The argument doesn’t get answered. The person who made it gets discussed instead, and the two activities are allowed to feel like the same one.

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Thinking trap

Anchoring

also called the anchoring effect, anchor-and-adjust

The first number said drags every judgement that follows toward it — including when it was obviously arbitrary, and including when you watched it being made up.

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Bad evidence

Anecdotal Evidence

also called the plural of anecdote, it worked for me

One vivid case, well told, outweighs a study of ten thousand — because the case has a face and the study has a table.

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Bad evidence

Appeal to Authority

also called argumentum ad verecundiam, the credential as proof

The reason to believe it is who said it. Nothing the expert actually knows has been passed along — only the fact that they’re the sort of person who would know.

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Thinking trap

Argument from Incredulity

also called the appeal to personal incredulity

“I can’t imagine how that could be true, therefore it isn’t” — treating the limits of your own imagination as a measurement of the world.

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Faulty reasoning

Begging the Question

also called circular reasoning, petitio principii, assuming the conclusion

The reason given for a claim turns out to be the claim again, wearing a different coat.

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Group failure

Bikeshedding

also called Parkinson’s law of triviality, the colour of the bike shed (which is not Parkinson’s)

The enormous, expensive, irreversible decision goes through in four minutes. The small one everybody understands eats the rest of the meeting.

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Bad evidence

Cherry-Picking

also called the suppressed evidence fallacy, quoting selectively

Every fact presented is true and every one of them checks out, and the set was assembled so that the true facts add up to a false picture.

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Thinking trap

Cognitive Dissonance

also called dissonance reduction, effort justification

Holding two things that don’t fit is genuinely uncomfortable, so one of them quietly gives — and it’s never the one that already cost you something.

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Thinking trap

Confirmation Bias

also called the positive test strategy, looking where the answer already is

You go and check, you find support, and you stop — because the search was shaped by the answer before it started, and a search for confirmations returns confirmations.

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Bad evidence

Correlation and Causation

also called cum hoc ergo propter hoc, post hoc ergo propter hoc

Two things move together, so one gets announced as the cause of the other — and the third thing driving both is never mentioned, because nobody went looking for it.

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Faulty reasoning

Equivocation

also called trading on ambiguity, the shifting word

One word appears twice meaning two different things, and the argument only works for as long as nobody notices it changed jobs in the middle.

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Faulty reasoning

False Dichotomy

also called false dilemma, the either/or fallacy

Two options get put on the table as though they’re the only two, and the entire middle of the range quietly disappears.

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Rhetorical move

Gish Gallop

also called more claims than anyone can answer

Bury the other side in so many claims at once that answering all of them is impossible — and then let “unanswered” get scored as “unanswerable.”

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Bad evidence

Goodhart's Law

also called when a measure becomes a target, teaching to the test

The number was useful because it tracked the thing you cared about. Then you started rewarding the number, and people optimised the number — which is precisely what stopped it tracking anything.

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Group failure

Group Polarization

also called the risky shift, the group as a polarizer

A group of people who broadly agree talk it over, and every one of them comes out holding a more extreme version of what they walked in with — including the moderates.

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Group failure

Groupthink

also called concurrence-seeking, closing ranks

The group values its own agreement more than it values being right, so the doubts stop being spoken — and eventually stop being had.

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Thinking trap

Law of the Instrument

also called Maslow’s hammer, the golden hammer

You already have a favourite tool, so every problem starts arriving pre-shaped to fit it.

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Rhetorical move

Loaded Question

also called the complex question, the trick question

A question with a claim smuggled inside it, so that any straight answer concedes something you never agreed to.

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Rhetorical move

Motte and Bailey

also called the bait-and-switch argument

Make a bold claim. Get challenged. Retreat to an obvious one. Then pretend the bold claim was never in question.

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Rhetorical move

Moving the Goalposts

also called shifting the goalposts, raising the bar

You meet the standard you were given, and a new and higher standard appears where the old one used to be.

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Faulty reasoning

No True Scotsman

also called the appeal to purity

A counterexample turns up, so the definition quietly grows a new requirement that excludes it — and the original claim survives by no longer meaning anything.

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Rhetorical move

Proof by Assertion

also called ipse dixit, the bare assertion, argument by assertion

The claim gets repeated with more confidence instead of more support — and “everybody knows this” is handed over as though it were the evidence.

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Faulty reasoning

Slippery Slope

also called the thin end of the wedge, the camel’s nose

The first step gets objected to on the strength of the last one, and every step in between is assumed rather than argued — so a modest proposal is answered as though it were the extreme one.

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Faulty reasoning

Special Pleading

also called one rule for me, the convenient exception

The rule applies to everybody — right up until it applies to you, and then there’s a reason it doesn’t, and the reason has never come up before.

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Rhetorical move

Straw Man

also called strawmanning

Swap somebody’s actual argument for a dumber one, knock the dumb one down, and act like the job is finished.

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Bad evidence

Survivorship Bias

also called survivor bias, survival bias, counting only the ones that made it

You study the things that came through, work out what they had in common, and never notice that the things that didn’t come through had all the same qualities.

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Group failure

The Abilene Paradox

also called the drive to Abilene, agreement nobody wanted

Everybody goes along with a plan that not one of them wanted, because each believes the others are keen — and the group does something every single member was against.

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Thinking trap

The Sunk Cost Fallacy

also called throwing good money after bad, the Concorde fallacy

The reason given for continuing is everything already spent — which is gone whatever happens next, and therefore cannot be a reason for anything.

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Thinking trap

The XY Problem

also called asking about your guess instead of your goal

You need X, you decide Y will get you there, and you only ever ask about Y — so everybody helps you perfect an approach that was never going to work.

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Rhetorical move

Whataboutism

also called tu quoque, the appeal to hypocrisy

Answer a criticism by pointing at somebody else’s — so the original one never has to be addressed.

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